Originally Posted by
ethernal
Yes, there is no indication that Delta is going to make any major near-term schedule changes that would indicate a need for more frames. In fact, the most recent passenger trends (based on TSA throughput data) reached an inflection point about 10 days ago - the 7-day YoY average has dropped from 38% to 34% and the 30-day YoY average has ticked down by 1% (after a pretty steady rise from end of September onwards). Clearly demand is being tempered by the resurgence and - barring control measures - I don't see why this trend wouldn't continue through the winter months (and, optimistically, with a strong recovery starting in the Spring).
That said, Thanksgiving could be interesting as it will draw a lot of new travelers out - and COVID has made travel demand forecasting challenging as the majority of bookings are now made close-in. It is entirely possible that Delta is looking at options to maintain capacity flexibility in the coming weeks.
All anecdotal evidence, but from friends/family/coworkers, everyone I have spoken with is being extremely cautious for Thanksgiving. Many have said they will take any risk necessary for Christmas
Our neighbors put up their Christmas decorations before Halloween. I expect Thanksgiving flight demand to be below expectations, but Christmas travel may approach normal levels. Having done a small amount of travel now, I feel a lot more comfortable traveling and figure it will probably be the same for anyone traveling around Thanksgiving. Anyone who flies for Thanksgiving will also fly for Christmas. I expect a lot of minds to change between now and the holidays - I feel for the person whose job it is to schedule aircraft. All the people booking flights at the last minute and cancelling at the last minute will make things interesting. If I were DL, I would want as many a/c available as possible.