New research on the effectiveness of 14-Day quarantine:
On arrival passenger testing is twice as effective as 14-day quarantine at reducing Covid-19 community transmission
Summary- UK Government’s 14-day quarantine policy is least effective at preventing Covid-19 from entering the community, compared to all forms of passenger testing.
- New modelling finds a single test on arrival is twice as effective as the 14-day policy with a test three days pre-departure also 44% more effective than current policy.
- If a ‘test and release’ regime is applied, three days of quarantine is significantly more effective to minimise infectious days (by 60%) compared to ‘test and release’ after five days (53%) or seven days (45%).
- Innovative modelling by Oxera and Edge Health takes account of quarantine non-compliance evidence to analyse the effectiveness of passenger testing versus 14-day quarantine and introduces an improved measurement of risk of community transmission – the number of ‘infectious days screened’.
- When quarantine compliance, which is particularly low amongst asymptomatic individuals, is taken into account, the 14-day policy reduces the number of ‘infectious days’ that an individual is in the community by just 25%.
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The new analysis follows a Public Health England (PHE) paper which underpins the Government’s policymaking, which assumes 100% compliance to 14-day quarantine. However a recent study[2], which is consistent with SAGE’s own findings[3], shows that just 71% of symptomatic individuals may be following the rules, falling to as low as 28% for asymptomatic individuals. Another study finds that compliance may be as low as 18%, even when individuals present Covid-19 symptoms[4].
Read the rest:
https://www.oxera.com/on-arrival-pas...-testing#_ftn2
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Nov 12, 2020 at 8:45 am
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