"Investors can find an analyst on Bay Street to back up just about any trading strategy they might want to try out with ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. If you want to buy, sell or hold for a pullback, you can find a recommendation to follow for the shares of Air Canada's new holding company. The metrics that analysts use in issuing some of their target prices can also be a little confusing, so it's a relief when something straightforward comes along that investors can follow.

TD Newcrest's Brian Morrison has released a report that lays out the sensitivity of ACE's value to rising oil prices. Not surprisingly, the bottom line is if crude is strong in 2005, the airline's stock price will be weak. But it's the numbers that make the report interesting. He starts with an oil price assumption of $35.25 (U.S.) a barrel for 2005, then calculates that for every $1-a-barrel change in the annual average, ACE will be affected to the yearly tune of $28-million (Canadian) in EBITDAR (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and aircraft rent)." G&M

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