FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Best place to spend winter during a potential second wave of COVID?
Old Oct 27, 2020, 4:03 am
  #578  
fransknorge
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by the810
The point is that locations which had more significant first wave are doing much better during the second wave (perhaps except Spain). The situation in Lombardy proves it.

Of course, that does not mean there won't be any second wave in those places at all, but it should be on a smaller scale. Sweden is a similar case - it has an increase but it's slower than in other countries, so they actually keep dropping in the order of countries by new cases per capita (few weeks ago they've been 20th worst, now they're around 25th place).
Sure, this is why Manaus. Ile de France, Bayern, Milan, NorthRhineWestphalia have no resurgence....
This is completely incorrect and so far, except for Sweden as of today (cases are rising but not death rates yet) areas with high incidence in March-April are taking hard hit today.

Originally Posted by The_Bouncer
...and there appears to be no correlation whatsoever with the strength of "preventative measures" taken. The only correlation I can see is a negative correlation with the strength of the first wave, which itself had a negative correlation with the strength of the previous winter's flu season - i.e. many places that had a severe winter flu had a mild first wave and many places that had a severe first wave are having a milder second wave. I believe this is simply down to a levelling out of all cause mortality - i.e. places where many vulnerable elderly people had already succumbed to flu didn't have as many potential victims of covid.

So if covid risk is the main concern for someone when choosing a winter getaway, then it may be a reasonable strategy to choose somewhere that had a severe first wave. Personally, I would say do what makes you happy. If that is protecting yourself from the virus, do it. If that is sitting in your apartment and virtue signalling on Facebook, do it. If that is finding the place with the most freedom and decent weather, do it. Everybody has choices.
There is a clear correlation between measures taken, deaths and economical hits. Your theory flu/first/second wave is mumbo jumbo not supported by facts.

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