I'm not sure if this even reaches to the level of "data point", but I figured I'd share in case some future reader finds it useful. The miles/segments finally posted, with the following timeline:
Sept 19th - Travelled on AS.
Sept 28th - Manually requested mileage credit from AA using web form.
Oct 1st - Received email from AA, declining mileage credit on the basis of "Ineligible Booking Code". Replied with a copy of my itin and a link to their site showing partner earnings by fare type.
Oct 11th (poss 10th) - Miles+segments posted. Didn't receive a reply to the previous email, though.