Yes, that looks right. Better deal to pay cash that evening than points.

Marriott point redemptions are based on the category of hotel (which is determined by some combination of general popularity and service level) and are relatively stable throughout the year (each category has a standard/peak/off-peak redemption "cost", but they're limited to those 3 price points for points redemptions). Whereas cash prices fluctuate daily based on demand.

This means sometimes there are situations where the cash rate is very high and you can get a lot of value using points; or situations like yours where the cash rate is a much better value than using points. (Many people place a value of somewhere between 0.7 to 1 cent per Marriott point to help gauge redemption value).