You stay enough that they know you. You might be pleasantly surprised with their offer after they know your intentions. I'm in the midst of a long term stay and am paying 25% of current ADR. No negotiation. The GM offered the rate while the hotel was running at 20% and was happy to renew when they were running over 85%. The Hilton property down the street where I was a more frequent guest wouldn't budge during the same 20% occupancy time. In other words.....you never know.