Originally Posted by
mozilla
Now that things have settled down a bit, is it reasonable to predict that the US domestic fare market will slowly but surely evolve towards the EU fare market model once travel has picked up again but PR-wise it would still be way too early to re-introduce change fees?
* Cheap fares are non-changeable/use it or lose it - and the definition of "cheap fares" will gradually and silently be extended from Basic Economy to the cheaper 80% of all fares, including First.
* Fares that do include no-fee change flexibility will be sold at a differential that could easily cost significantly more than the typical $200 change fee we knew. But the "permanent" promise is kept: the change fee will be $0.
Will this be the way how the carriers will ultimately win?
If by "win", you mean earn a reasonable return on assets, then yes, you can expect some form of this. It has never made sense that the only fare types without change fees were the increasingly absurdly high "full fare". Since virtually no one is buying those, except when they are the only seat left, it makes sense to further stratify the fare spectrum. It will make sense to allow basic economy tickets to be enhanced for a fee at purchase to allow limited changes (i.e., one time change for $75 upfront fee), as some carriers have already tried in bundles or a la carte. Expect large customers (with corporate accounts) will be incentivized to keep booking regular fares.