With all the talk of a Cook Islands travel bubble, I decided to do some research on the likelihood of getting there at all, even if the borders are opened. This is because I think it would be interesting to concentrate all outbound New Zealand tourist traffic on a fairly small place.
First, there are two islands in the Cooks that host the vast majority of tourists, Rarotonga (67km²) and Aitutaki (18km²). Together, they are comparable in size to Waiheke Island (92km²). Rarotonga and Aitutaki combined have a population of about 15,000, while Waiheke’s is just under 10,000. So it’s about 50% more crowded in Rarotonga/Aitutaki than on Waiheke (New Zealand’s most densely populated island).
In the 2019 calendar year, there were 171,550 international visitors to the Cook Islands, of which 114,977 (67%) were New Zealanders. Monthly arrivals ranged from 7,608 in February to 18,612 in July. New Zealand visitors intended to stay for an average of nine days.
To make some assumptions, if there was a Cook Islands travel ‘bubble’:
• All of the Cook Islands’ international visitors would be from New Zealand
• No matter when the Cook Islands travel bubble was opened, the number of visitor arrivals would jump to peak levels almost immediately, even in February, because of the sheer numbers of New Zealanders wanting to travel overseas.
• 18,612 arrivals at July peak represents all Cook Islands accommodation being full.
So, at a July peak rate, that would have 600 New Zealanders arriving per day, each staying an average of nine nights, so using 5400 bed-nights.
If that tourist turnover rate was sustained for a year, 219,000 New Zealanders would be able to visit the Cook Islands, or 4.4% of the population.
But if you asked New Zealanders: “Assuming international borders remain closed, would you want to and be able to pay for a normally-priced holiday in the Cook Islands sometime in the next year?” I think the answer would be far more than four or five per cent. Not just because of the people who’ve missed out on going to Rarotonga because of COVID-19, but because of the people who’ve missed out on going anywhere else overseas, tropical paradise or not.