FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Best place to spend winter during a potential second wave of COVID?
Old Aug 9, 2020, 2:41 am
  #192  
fransknorge
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Rhineland-Palatinate
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Posts: 5,706
Originally Posted by ahmetdouas
You mean that beating a virus usually causes immunity to the person? Forget me being a scientists, but I do remember the UK chief scientific officer saying the words ‘herd immunity’ either naturally or through a vaccine very clearly in a live press conference.

That’s what I’m saying here, so to the point of the OP, the more the country has dealt with a virus the lower the chances of a ‘second wave’ (aka the Swedish model and the UK model before they did a U-turn, but by the time they did the virus was so prevalent in London that it had pretty much already passed the peak by the time it locked down!)

So London is relatively safe from the Virus, (not as much as that ski resort of Austria or Bergamo and probably even Milan, but still decent)
Several points:
- Recovering from a viral infection usually cause immunity, there are exceptions though (Dengue fever) . This immunity is not necessarily lasting. Other CoV have immunity lasting at best 3 years, some less than one year. Flu immunity is one year.
- The UK CSO never said herd immunity *will* be conferred. He say it *may be*
- The current resurgence hot spots are directly contradicting the theory that high prevalence in March-May means no second wave. Catalonia and Ile de France were hit hard and are currently the area with the highest rate of attack in both Spain and France.
- Except if you weren’t overburdened with an abundance of schooling the base of the scientific method (hypothese - experiments - observations - deductions) are part of the general culture. You do not need to be a scientist to know that if we do not know something, you can not just make up your opinion and present it as facts.
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