It depends on both the hotel and the market.

I've just done a regular sweep of my bookings to check if I can get them cheaper and found the following (based on average rate over a 3 night stay)

I compare like with like so same room and same cancellation policy. Existing booking still says 20% VAT in the blub but new ones 5%

1. Manchester Crown Plaza - September

Previous rate - 91.16. if you divide by 120 * 105 the new reduced rate should be = 79.77

Actual new rate = 76.33 so rate is even lower than that expected just to take into account the VAT reduction

2. Manchester Holiday Inn - October

Previous rate - 91.46. if you divide by 120 * 105 the new reduced rate should be = 80.02

Actual new rate = 82.69 - so could be seen to not reflect the VAT reduction but I've found the price of this hotel does vary a bit anyway depending what is happening in Manchester.


YMMV