My takeaways from the Q&A portion of the call:
- 26K took temporary leave, 6K took permanent leave, working on other union deals that will materially increase those numbers
- Big picture; currently down 83%, flying will plateau at 50% till there is a vaccine, flat line at 50% till vaccine, then "rapid" recovery post vaccine
- Will be at zero total (not operating) cash burn when demand gets to 50% (currently at 27%)
- Not sure how long it will take to get to 50%
- UAs internal plan is vaccine will be widely distributed late in '21, but hoping timing is better
- Recovery will be quick once vaccine widely available
- Question: 196 wide bodies in fleet at end of '19, will you have more or less than 100 (not typo) in fleet by end of '23. {Dumb question} Answer: "more"
- New business: 2/3 new cash and 1/3 ETCs (total advanced bookings is shy of $5B)
- Routes, slots, gates will be collateral for treasury loan if they take it -- this collateral worth $9B
- Other collateral could be United brand and domestic route network -- other airlines have successfully used these for collateral
- Question: Who's flying, loyal flyers or one-offs? Answer: currently non-members are higher % of flyers than typical, but member % increasing rapidly
- Cargo strong because: (1) cargo wants to go to UA hubs (NY, Chicago, West Coast) and (2) other airlines are flying fewer wide bodies
- Hesitant to make any fleet retirement decisions ("years to decide") as they are constantly pulling out stored aircraft to optimize maintenance cycles