Originally Posted by
Mr. BoH
Aren't these reasons why the anecdotal reports might be more useful than the "official" load stats? I think most people reading this thread are doing it to try and figure out "if I get on a plane now, how many seats will be filled", rather than caring about how many pax are non-rev (for example). The reports have been eye-opening to me, because I would have expected very few passengers on most flights. These anecdotes tell me there are lots of flights going out that feel "full".
It's certainly not scientific, but better than no info...
Of note, it's a well known statistical phenomenon that the average observed load factor by a passenger will be higher than the average load factor (using load factor to mean what a passenger could observe: seat occupancy, ignoring revenue etc.) reported by an airline.
To make an extreme example. Imagine 10 flights with 100 seats apiece. 4 flights go out completely empty and 6 go out 100%.
Airline's perspective: 600 seats sold/1000 seats available = 60% LF
Survey passengers: 600 out of 600 will report 100%
Even ignoring that you're more likely to get a volunteered response if the LF is abnormal, the sample in a passenger survey weights flights with more pax, which correlates with LF.