Maybe a lot of that capacity will just not be required for the foreseeable future and no deliveries will be pulled forward. Those 744 frames are all paid for and fully depreciated now so costs are basically fuel and maintenance only whereas taking on new 77W / A35K / 787 occur a high cash outlay or high monthly lease costs.
Very well said.
Rolls Royce H1 results mentioned that they foresee their power-by-the-hour business to be at 70% of 2019 by end of 2021. It means that 18 months from now we'll still be 30% lower, in terms of flying, than where we were 6 months ago. And this is long haul only! I think we need to face the truth: some, maybe a lot, of the routes previously operated by a 747 (or by other airplanes) won't be around for the foreseeable future. For instance, given the current situation and the spectacular ineptitude of specific US states, I doubt we'll see many second-tier cities restarting shortly, and even some "1st tier".