Originally Posted by
StuckInYYZ
As for the ARM version or not, depends on your lifetime with a given laptop. They said it will take 1-2 year transition everything to Apple silicon, but I would assume a 7-8 year support lifetime for the laptop (at least OS-wise). At least that's what they have done in the past. App vendors would likely give it at 5-7 years to support both Intel and ARM versions (that or risk pissing people off who invested huge amounts of cash into their macs)... since you have a MacBook, I don't think you're likely to be in a rush to buy a new one (depend on age of course). If I were to advise my friends, I'd say wait to see if they have a 13/14" MBP come closer to the end of the year. If they do, then decide between the recently refreshed MBP (which should have come down in price) or get the new MBP...
At least that's how I would do this.
From
this article, it sounds like Apple killed PowerPC support in the OS three years after the first Intel machines came out. Assuming they use a similar trajectory, Intel support will likely end 3-4 years after the last Intel Mac in their lineup is replaced with an ARM version. However, they may also keep Intel support around a lot longer this time for environmental reasons, people going a lot longer between hardware upgrades, etc.
Personally, I've replaced machines every three years in the past and the current one is going to be at the end of year 3 in October. (I tried to go past 3 with my last one, but an inopportune LCD failure before an international trip forced a replacement during year 4 since I couldn't source a new/refurbished LCD in time.) Since then, of course, Apple laptops have become more of a challenge to fix for the average person. Considering that and the questionable long-term reliability/support for the butterfly keyboard, I'm thinking I'm going to replace not long after the 3 years are up this time. The question then ends up being, how long do I want to be able to run x86 stuff, either in macOS or booting to Windows or Linux--or whether being able to run x86 stuff even matters.
On the other hand, I also try not to buy first-gen anything from Apple due to the inevitable issues that come up. And there probably will be issues given such a major change. Then again, the tighter integration might help (plus the fact that they're giving out developer Mac Minis to get enough ARM ported apps out there at launch, so it's an opportunity to find major bugs before consumers get hardware).
In the meantime, I'm kinda tempted to replace my laptop
now since having to use a Surface 3 as my primary machine (while my MBP has been at some Apple repair depot for over a week and counting) is starting to get a bit annoying--especially if it goes for more than another week or so. In that event, if I end up replacing with another x86 MBP, I figure I can buy an ARM Mac Mini for ARM development too whenever it comes out.