An interesting thing is when I was emailing with Dell customer support they said my package showed shipped, even though UPS hadn't actually gotten the package, because it was coming form China. So supposedly it "shipped" from China on that day.
I didn't know Dell directly ships from China. If so that makes sense why the waittime/delays are so inconsistent. I guess they placed an order at the factory?

Admittedly I don't know if the CSR is telling me the truth or not.