Originally Posted by
corporate-wage-slave
I don't agree with the quarantine, but the rationale I gave upthread is genuine. Namely it's pointess having quarantine when the overwhelming mode of transmission was within the local community. But when, as is now the case for London, the level of community transmission is close to zero, you have the opportunity to prevent new arrivals bringing new sources of infection to the UK. The underlying assumption that travellers will have a higher level of infection than the UK average is certainly open to question, but probably isn't open to question in London and the South East of England. This logic can be pulled apart (e.g. internal movements within the UK) but HMG has been fairly consistent in this messaging both publicly and internally.
I too expect there will be further changes before it is implemented.
Your post makes sense.
Just an aside. Britain, like many other countries, are only testing serious cases (and possibly some contacts). Same in HK. But we know that a significant numbers of contagious people are asymptomatic cases (e.g. 40%) and people with mild symptoms. Hence, there is still a lot of contagious people in London. In a month time, those numbers should dwindle as well if London stay "isolated".
My point rather reinforces your comment.