I'll take the "under" in this debate. A successful vaccine is probably unlikely, and all but the highest-risk elderly folks will be unwilling/unable to stay housebound much longer. My healthy 90-year-old mother is already at wit's end and ready to return to the shops (with mask on). Things will get back to normal, including flying, much sooner than some of these extremely pessimistic forecasts. Meanwhile, some people will continue to get sick and die from COVID. Both things can be true.