Originally Posted by
Internaut
Someone, somewhere, must surely be looking at all that empty, expensive office space and thinking "Why?"
This. I've been looking at what a recovery looks like from a economic standpoint. I think we're going to see some very interesting, very different trends coming out of this (whenever that is).
Commercial real estate has completely crashed. But I'm not sure we've seen the bottom. Lots of companies are learning that they simply don't need the office space, and I think that hit to CRE will come later (i.e. when leases aren't renewed). It's one thing when tech companies start working from home, but now you have financial institutions publicly saying they'll be allowing that as well. Call centers are another thing I expect to see moved into people's houses. The tech exists to do that anywhere nowadays (ala B6)
I also think we're going to see a significant amount of people moving out of dense urban areas. Maybe not all at first, but the longer this goes on, the more pronounced it will be. Especially if a vaccine isn't fully effective (as some coronavirus experts are warning) and social distancing is around for years. This will affect not only housing, but business as well. This one will be interesting to watch. Do people move back to urban areas after some time? Who knows at this point.