FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Old May 14, 2020 | 8:54 am
  #841  
cjermain
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Houston, TX
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Posts: 416
Originally Posted by fly18725
United is prepared for zero revenue through 2020 and I’ve yet to see one credible opinion that doubts that. Bankruptcy becomes a real consideration if demand does not pick up in 2021.
Others know way more about this than I do, but a competent management team doesn't simply spend cash down to zero and then declare bankruptcy and liquidate, right? Unless UA sees a reasonable path to profitability, it won't just keep throwing money away to pay rent simply because it can. If we get well into the third quarter and revenue is still, say, 20% of what it was last year or we are looking at a resurgence of COVID-19 with no vaccine on the horizon---both real possibilities---it becomes abundantly clear that the industry can't go on as it is. In that case, there will be a radical shake-up. That, I believe, is what Dave Calhoun meant.

The reason that we have not seen radical moves so far is that there is some hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel---a vaccine, or a continued drop in COVID-19 cases/deaths that results in a gradual increase in air travel. That's why everyone is trying to draw things out as long as possible... ride it out. If there's real progress, all of the players will hang on as long as they can (and yes, it seems like UA can make it to the end of the year). But as soon as that hope fades---and let's hope we don't get to that point---the industry is going to go through some massive changes.
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