Originally Posted by
EWR764
If COVID-19 leads to reimposed restrictions on mobility in late 3Q/4Q, especially if there is some light at the end of the vaccine tunnel (I am not optimistic about that, but admittedly have zero expertise in that area), another round of assistance might be seen as a 'bridge' to a more sustainable future, and an attempt to avoid tens of thousands of layoffs a few weeks before a national election.
As the guy (I think the only one...) who was saying in February of this year that Covid-19 was coming to US big time, and would decimate the industry, I'll take the over on "if". Chances of an effective vaccine (which 25% of Americans say they will not take, its a Bill Gates plot, don't you know) by this fall are slim, very slim, and I'll take the over on your "if". Combo of no national plan, inadequate testing capacity, and oh, people refusing to social distance, we are not going to get to a level of transmission (R less than 1) necessary to re-open.
But I'm sure United jamming people next to each other on aircraft with 8" between your mouth and the guy next to you in the middle seat, that is going to be the winner for United. Real winner of a carrier. Lots of great selling points. And congress is going to be really, really receptive when they want more $$$$.