For those still fighting with Expedia like me, I came upon this:
https://b.travel-assets.com/epc/epc-...p_237_1033.pdf
These boilerplate T&C's between hotels and Expedia seem pretty clear cut - they have the power to yank the payment from the hotel if they cannot provide a room, or if a complaint arises. Also note that for force majeure events, the contract specifically calls out that section C.2.c (relocations) is enforceable.
In any case, it's likely helpful for my credit card dispute to demonstrate that Expedia can indeed force a refund if they want to.