Originally Posted by
uastarflyer
Indeed. Kirby is the worst option right now. Anybody can cut and chop. What is needed is leadership that is focused on growing faster than comp and market coming out of the downturn. You don’t cut and save your way out of a downturn.
What’s really alarming is Kirby’s bias prior to COVID towards smallball domestic v worldwide service. CLE-LIT isn’t the future.
Are we talking about the same airline? This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. First, Kirby is already on the record saying exactly that: he wants United to be positioned for growth following the downturn, to recapture lost share, but that discussion is utterly premature and is really just aspirational at this point. This is a zero-demand environment currently... I think you're grossly underestimating the crisis. No airline executive can credibly talk about growth right now when even more dramatic cuts are necessary. A prerequisite for a growth-oriented strategy coming out of this catastrophe is, of course, the survival of the company as a going concern. That's far from assured.
Second, Kirby's strategy has been all about growing gauge, and his public comments support this. Domestic connectivity has been United's weakness for over a decade, starting with the removal of the 737 fleet at pre-merger UA, the merger with CO (a domestic lightweight) and continued capacity cuts in the domestic market until 2016. So, while CLE-LIT isn't very sexy (the example was actually something like Fayetteville AR to Tokyo, or Erie to Paris) the lack of options allows for higher fares for airlines offering better connectivity through hubs. The scope clause of the United pilot agreement limit the low end, so 50-seaters represented a cheap way to build connectivity, but there is no question they are an uneconomical platform. At the other end of the spectrum (and of course things are going to change now), from 2017 to the present, United has taken delivery of 35 new 300+ seat airplanes (with 12 on order) and reconfigured 12 more into 360-seaters. What was that about smallball again? What have Delta and American done at the top of their respective fleets?
Finally, with a long-term, significant decline in international travel forecast (United is planning to be 80% domestic in the short to medium-term), does it really make sense to have a worldwide-heavy strategy right now? Domestic was where the most money was made in 2010-2020, and will be the first to return. United's exposure to international generally, and Asia particularly, is viewed as a major drag on its recovery prospects. It's hard to argue against that, under the current circumstances.
Kirby is an easy target for everyone's gripes, executives always are, but there seems to some disconnect with reality here.