Originally Posted by
canadiancow
I maintain a 12-18 month runway, funded primarily with EYW. I can't possibly see EYW happening this year, and given the ecological thread, I could easily see COVID stop them from running another one until we have a vaccine. And by then, maybe they'll have forgotten about it.
As for confidence in value... do I have confidence in what they will be worth? I have some confidence. I wouldn't pay 2cpm.
In fact, this discussion with you is making me think I should just buy the whole amount.
Based on the rough numbers you threw out the other night, I thought you would be burning these miles more in the 18-24 month timeframe. To me, that's a long way away and a lot of risk to assume on a very substantial purchase like this. I also see correlation between lack of EYW and general lack of travel - if you're thinking that things will be so bad for a while that AC won't want to do an EYW, that will probably also mean your burn rate slows way down on the Aeroplan miles, further pushing out the amount of time it will take you to burn them.
I would see this as a somewhat risky investment then, and one with limited upside - points values tend to be like ratchets, only ever going one direction, so it's not like you're going to be able to redeem 80K points for a J round trip to Europe soon. If I'm going to gamble, I'd rather put it to work on a risky investment in the market that has a higher chance of paying off (maybe even AC stock!
) than airline miles.
Re running another EYW, you should just suggest that they run it all on DH3/DH1s so that your ecological consequences are positive instead of negative