FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Aeroplan Miles Sales - May 7-15th 2020
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Old May 5, 2020 | 3:09 pm
  #35  
Adam Smith
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Originally Posted by MaxFlying
Curious whether SE and/or SEMM are thinking about buying? I am quite low on miles, but also know once flying resumes I can earn quickly with COS, SE bonus and likely whatever other promotions will exist. I am kind of thinking about getting enough for a J to Europe.
I'm thinking about it. It's a good price for miles, and historically I've done far better, value-wise, than what can be had on the first tranche at ~1.4 cpm cost. Buying a bunch of miles here would also contribute towards the promo for the 25K MM-eligible miles, without me having to transfer over a bunch of Amex MR.

But like martyYOW and 36902BRF , I'm concerned about whether I'll be able to use them up in decent time. I'll have no problem redeeming them for something decent pretty quickly, but if that gets cancelled, I may end up getting back a bunch of points that are potentially worth less than they are now.

Originally Posted by Granite64
Mass devaluation inbound, sales like these are red flag.
The cow has already sort of made the point that this is a drop in the bucket, but just for some context, in 2018, the last full year in which Aimia owned Aeroplan, Aeroplan sold almost $1.3 billion of points. Most points are sold to financial partners and AC/*A partners at a bit over 1 cpm, so let's assume 1.5 cpm. That gets you to over 85 billion Aeroplan miles sold in the year. They had a bit over 2 years' sales outstanding as deferred revenue (effectively, unredeemed points) at YE18, meaning something like 175 billion Aeroplan points in circulation at that time. So adding 100MM more miles, or even 1B more miles, doesn't really move the needle. (Those numbers will have moved around a bit since then, obviously, but they weren't terribly volatile in the previous years, so they should be decent enough for illustrative purposes).

A devaluation may be coming when the new Aeroplan launches (whenever that ends up happening), but it won't have anything to do with this promo.
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