Craig .. great piece of math! Looks pretty ball park to me at first glance, and your load factors and cost look within sensible reasoning.
My only take is that a $10 levy might have been more prudent, as a good deal of hedging saving must still be in place, and conversely a drop in price due to increased production will mean $10 might soon be over correcting?
On a $69 cheapie a $20 hike is nuts. Does it apply to EVERY flight regardless of distance? Guess I better shut up at I step onto a SYD-USA-MEXICO-SYD in a few days, of 18,000 miles of flying so if they levied it on distance I'd be up for $100s more, not $20!
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~ Glen ~