Originally Posted by
nivsy
Funny how you are desperate to get on holiday yet not overly bothered if you catch it and terminate. Each to their own.
Originally Posted by
Lynyrd
If I am to continue to live an interesting life, which includes hopping on aeroplanes at regular opportunities, it will come with some risk. There is a balance to be had between mitigating that risk and still having fun versus wrapping up in cotton wool and doing nothing. Where that balance is will be different for each of us, but for me I would be more than willing to take the risk of flying somewhere. If I was 80 with COPD then I would likely be more risk averse.
That's the problem. I understand you in the UK are still a form of democracy still even though you over there may disagree what kind of a democracy it is. From there I believe you are not are allowed to risk killing 1,000 old people just so 1,000,000 young people can live better lives (utilitarianism).
From there, I see a demand problem in the next 30-42 months - it's not because we don't want to fly, but rather we are not allowed to by public heath fiat.
During that time I see an opening for hub carriers like ME3 to have some unique opportunities.
Also LCCs should still have a good run because slot-driven supply control won't exist for a while.
And even after that (pandemic over), then what?
It will be as disruptive as WWII.
Lots of new airlines starting up?
I don't think it'll be all the incumbents who make it out - especially those privatised ex-national carriers or commercially-funded concerns to survive.
Whatever replaces them will have to be a lot more agile.
Short haul will definitely lot more LCCs - with more debundling.
Maybe some resumption of slot control - but that would be by larger LCCs like EZY/FR/AK. Not necessary the former national carrier types.
Network effect will be less as we continue to book online, pack light and self-transfer.
There might be more reversion to the past with long haul.
National champions maybe.
Maybe some scope for point-to-point replacing ME3 hub model as demand recovers.
But tempered by much shorter investment horizons.
I'm just thinking what a capital-light long-haul airline will look like.
So maybe we will see more hub and spokes still.