Originally Posted by
littlefish
The mention of travel and the context of commuters and also the emphasis on R, really caught my attention at today's briefing. One of the difficulties for HMG whilst they wait for better tests/science/data and lower cases, yet partially unlock, is how to keep some handle on R whilst facing down the fact ideal social distancing can't be maintained in Trains / Buses / Tubes / Planes etc ... nor several other places even at 33% capacities. They know R will rise, but can they detect and understand rises quickly enough to flag 'above tolerance' rises?
The other phrase that struck me was the PM mentioning other innovative solutions.
Some of these would be valuable parts of a 'good enough' Phase 2; it will be interesting if the Government is prepared to go all out and sell them.
I believe they are still waiting for clearer options and 5th May is very tight.
There are a number of concerns in the short term. Remember it was SAGE that advised large social gatherings had minimal impact on R. Guess what happened after 400,000 people gathered for 4 days at Cheltenham. Same with previous advice on face masks. Hence government anxiety over 2nd wave - this time they need to make the right decisions and I think the Prime Minister is well aware because the margins are narrow.
For air travel to commence on a commercially viable basis, the confidence of the passenger and business need to be in place. And the not inconsiderable legal and medical safety issues. For those who are interested, google the 1976 incident in Alaska when 70% of passengers on a 737 flight were infected with influenza carried by a single passenger. And flu aerosol transmission much lower than COVID. What about cabin crew safety? What about legal liabilities if transmission event occurs on board?
Reasons to be optimistic? The likelihood of a vaccine is high - there are 100 in development. There are two UK vaccines which look pretty good. Even if they serve to mitigate disease severity to a mild disease, confidence will flood back. But need to manufacture at scale......billions of doses. Realistically that may happen by mid late 2020. ...can current corporate structures survive until then?