Originally Posted by
corporate-wage-slave
I think I can a little more open, not least because the Prime Minister said as much in today's Downing Street Briefing (plus hints in the Lobby Briefing). Namely that a list of options are being prepared, except we have to call it a "road map for Phase 2" rather than use the Option word for some reason. The list of options will cover travel, education, testing, masks, lockdown / social distancing changes, legislation, economic stimulus and what-not. It will be run past SAGE "early in May", though I think it's Tuesday 5 May they are meeting. By law the government has to re-state any lockdown intention by 7 May. SAGE will then advise HMG which options will work within the 5 advertised crieria, HMG consults with the devolved adminstrations on Wednesday 6 May and hope everyone plays along. Individual chunks of the options/roadmap could be switched on mid May onwards, particulary if R0 can be narrowed from the current fairly wide band of measurement of 0.6 to 0.9, with 0.5 to 0.7 in Greater London. Hence social distancing will remain a core part of Phase 2.
The mention of travel and the context of commuters and also the emphasis on R, really caught my attention at today's briefing. One of the difficulties for HMG whilst they wait for better tests/science/data and lower cases, yet partially unlock, is how to keep some handle on R whilst facing down the fact ideal social distancing can't be maintained in Trains / Buses / Tubes / Planes etc ... nor several other places even at 33% capacities. They know R will rise, but can they detect and understand rises quickly enough to flag 'above tolerance' rises?
The other phrase that struck me was the PM mentioning other innovative solutions.
Some of these would be valuable parts of a 'good enough' Phase 2; it will be interesting if the Government is prepared to go all out and sell them.
I believe they are still waiting for clearer options and 5th May is very tight.