I know there’s a whole host of issues with being a public sector airline, I remember more than a few. But closely following COVID19 as we all are, it’s becoming apparent that there is no commercial basis for aviation in the UK in 2020. The volume of passengers won’t be there, and the market for travel for business and leisure has vanished.
Until entry to other countries is normalised, passenger carrying aviation is not required. Today HMG is ruling out public gatherings before December, people have lost their jobs as we head into a depression, not just a recession, and yet some on here expect flying to resume this year!

The market size IMHO will be no more than 10% of the same month last year, if that. Money is now being conserved as people are scared. And who is going to spend hundreds of pounds to put themselves at risk in aircraft where one person with a cough is terrifying? Where no inflight service is offered? To go somewhere that is still semi closed with limited hotels and few open attractions? A fraction of BAU.

On that basis, IAG will run out of money well before any recovery that offers real hope of commercial survival. I think in reality, with Virgin going unless Branson steps up, like Rolls Royce before it, BA is too important to any UK recovery to be allowed to fail. I don’t see IAG owning BA for much longer. They’re a business and there’s no commercial reason for an airline of BA’s size before next year at the earliest. Alex Cruz can use the MBA handbook to cut costs and re-org as long as he likes but there’s no passenger revenue stream in sight this year, and anyone thinking about travel is looking to next summer before their next major trip.