I think things are going to look very different when this is all said and done. I don't think anyone knows how it will happen between here or there, or what "there" looks like.

I think CX would be completely idiotic to lose someone like MoscowFlyer as a result of this, regardless of what it looks like once CX starts putting more birds back in the air. and I don't think they're that stupid. My guess is they'll just roll him/her over next Jan-April. Depending when we can take to the skies again, I might be in the same boat!

But the situation will look so different (alliances, capacity, loyalty programs, frequency of travel, etc.) I'm not sure speculation based on the way things worked in the past is going to yield anything useful.

One thing to bear in mind: CX themselves are inevitably going to go through serious rounds of capacity cuts at least medium term (1-2 years). Who knows what's beyond that but I feel confident at least the medium term is going to be sharply curtailed, not just the short-run in the next 3-12 months. That's going to be mean a lot of early retirements (duh) and frankly a lot of layoffs here in Hong Kong, CX headquarters. I don't see any way around it. The person making the rules at MPC (or the entire team, or half management) might be gone in 6 months anyway! Really a lot of unknowns right now.