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Old Apr 24, 2020, 9:12 pm
  #75  
OZFLYER86
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Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer
The post Covid19 environment is such that some airlines will need to be closed down. The international flight market is dead and will remain dead for at least another 6 months or more. The focus will be on domestic travel. The models predict minimal amounts of traffic over the next 3 months with it taking up to 2 years to recover. There just won't be enough traffic to support both Q and V during this time One has to go.Yes, there is legitimate concern that the loss of Virgin may allow airfares to rise. If there is a concern, the government can always go back to regulating airfares. Airfares will be increasing significantly, whether or not Virgin is still around. Consumers will have to accept that the airline industry will need fare increases to help keep them afloat and those increases could very well be 25% or more on some routes.

Throwing money at a foreign controlled company will hardly receive much support from the Australian public, no matter how wonderful the employees are. The people most at risk are the mainland Chinese shareholders who hold almost 40%. Seriously, how could anyone make a case to bail them out? No one will shed tears for the wealthy gang from for Singapore Airlines and Etihad if they take a haircut. Branson's plea for a bailout was soundly ridiculed by some of his wealthy peers .As Duncan Bannatyne said, let Branson put his own money in first. He can cash in some of his 4 billion pounds of assets or use it for collateral to get a bank loan if he is that passionate.
Noone will be throwing any money at VA, they are in admin. Foreign owners of VA will end up with minute shareholdings. 40% could end up being 4% or less.

BUT with admin, like chapter 11 in USA much of the VA debt will be gone. Creditors will get cents in the dollar. Owners of leased aircraft, will get no more payments at current lease levels (they will at Qantas) & so new leases will be at fraction of what they have been getting. The world is now littered with 1000s of good aircraft parked. Fuel is cheap. If new VA can hedge fuel at current prices, it will have a massive cost advantage over Qantas. Qantas will have major problems with unions if they try to cut labour costs. This is why it has been reported, that there are over 10 cashed up serious buyers of VA, who will not be taking on much of old VA debt.

Last edited by OZFLYER86; Apr 24, 2020 at 9:31 pm
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