Originally Posted by
Keiran Newberry
We cannot wait for a vaccine that may never come - unfortunately a lot of people seem to think we have to. It's the public feeling that will be the biggest barrier to resumption of normality. Just have to look at the reaction here in the UK to the Sunday Times article about the British Government's handling of the early days. Many people calling for Boris Johnson to be charged with manslaughter. Completely disproportionate reaction and we're not going to see that go away any time soon.
I agree that instant/rapid testing would reduce need for social distancing and load reduction, but I feel that certain measures could be implemented or retained to help where possible, such as back to front boarding and earlier boarding to reduce crowding. The other end of that is grouped disembarkation upon arrival, to thin out queues and massive groups at passport control
THIS IS ADDRESSED TO EVERYONE, not to the poster of this particular message. I am especially looking for help from
anyone who actually knows about testing.
First, what is actually scientifically/technically possible at the present time? (Theranos had a lovely vision. The problem was that the science didn't actually exist. So I want to know what might actually happen, not what we wish would happen.) In other words, do we currently have a test for ANY VIRUS (not bacteria, not chemical in the air, just an actual virus) that is: a) somewhat mobile (i.e. - it can be deployed at multiple locations in an airport); b) which provides results in less than one minute; c) which results are at least 99.5% accurate for the presence of the virus; d) ideally with a per test administration cost below $20.
Second, if that does exist, what is the scientific/technical likelihood that it will be adapted to CV, with the same accuracy, within 90 days?
Third, if it is likely, what will it take to make 10,000 of those machines within 120 days?
Finally, if such a device
doesn't yet exist, is there any scientific basis to believe (outside of "magical thought" (a clinical term)) that such technology will be invented and deployed in the next six months?
Because if the answer to those questions is in the negative, then I don't understand why any projection that includes the word "testing" has any application to reality.