FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - How do you see travel being able to resume - new measures?
Old Apr 17, 2020 | 10:12 pm
  #253  
twoyatris
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Originally Posted by IMOA
I think both have fundamentally the same aim, eradication or as close to it as you can get. I think you’re getting hung up on words, reality is they both have very similar numbers with Australia just ahead on per capita cases, testing rates and testing results so once both countries are comfortable with letting people move around it will make no difference to extend the bubble to surround both countries. Also keep in mind the countries have a very long and close relationship with things like a right to reside and work between the two in place.

Tourism is important to NZ but not that important. Having a quick google the first two countries I tried were NZ (5.6% of GDP) and France (9.7%) so no, I don’t think it’s as important as you think. Also as has been explained domestic tourism is half the number and of international arrivals Australians make up about half of them (New Zealanders are also the number one source of international arrivals to Australia). More than tourism I would think education would be the big one hit there as for both Australia and New Zealand there are a lot international students, particularly from China, so managing this in the years ahead will be critical. However, if Australia and NZ are seen as safe haven and sensible rules can be created for quarantining international arrivals (quarantine less of an impact because of the length of the visits) this could be turned into an opportunity as well.

Both NZ and Australia have managed the crisis well in part by acting quickly, acting in a bipartisan manner and being pragmatic rather than ideological, I don’t see this changing when it comes to cooperating to open up travel across the ditch.
You are cherry picking your numbers. The same site will tell you international tourism is NZ number one export industry. You can't possibly think that tourism (particularly foreign tourism the relevant issue here) is twice as important for France (home of airbus, multiple car companies etc) as it is for NZ. I'm not saying its the Maldives but foreign tourism going to zero will hurt. https://howmuch.net/articles/travel-...m-economy-2017

There is no as close to it as you can get. This is a highly contagious virus with a short doubling time, you either aim for containment whereby you don't want to overwhelm your healthcare resources and you have ongoing social distancing measures of some kind, or you go extreme and try to eradicate it. The aim of eradication is to get back to normal. If you miss your target when your back to normal and there are a few cases spreading then you have go back into lock down. Knowing what we do now about the sheer number of cases out there that are asymptomatic i think the cat is out of the bag for Aus (they aren't shut down as much as NZ now), NZ still has a (good) chance.

Last edited by twoyatris; Apr 17, 2020 at 10:29 pm
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