Suggest you call and ask on this one. In Early March, after the first flexible cancellation option was offered by UA (cancel and rebook without penalty in 12 months), I had no problem getting a paid domestic F upgrade refunded even though the flight was still scheduled, with the base fare being held by UA and later converted to an ETC. In late March, after the European restrictions were announced, I had a nonstop cancelled and an involuntary re-route. I was unable to get the paid upgrade refunded, or even converted to a credit. Two days ago, after the DOT slapped UA, I called back and received a refund on the paid upgrade with my base fare being converted into an ETC. I think if you call them and tell them you can't make the trip, are happy to have the base fare turned into an ETC but would like a refund on the upgrade as you don't know whether you'll be able to apply it on whatever future trip you book, there's a chance they process it as a refund. If not, keep your reservation and hope they change your schedule, then call and try again.