I think it's a question of whether people actually want to fly or not in the foreseeable future (i.e. in the next 12 to 18 months). On the one hand you have quarantine on your return, and on the other you have the risk of catching the virus itself.

FF and business travellers aside, I doubt there would be enough demand from ordinary folk to warrant opening up certain routes. It's a shame, as the risk (at some as yet indeterminate point in the future) will probably be quite low - however the fears and precautions will remain. For example, one thing that does concern me, no matter how irrational it seems, is coming off a flight a little inebriated and jet lagged, only to get categorised as showing symptoms of COVID and ending up in quarantine in the country you arrived in, thus missing almost all (or a good portion thereof) your trip.

As for the Islands, I can see them following NZ's lead on this one - it's just a hunch. In some ways it's a good thing though, as more of us who want to spend our holiday aboard go to the Islands...in part because that's the only place we can safely travel to without being quarantined on our return!

As for business travellers, with so many businesses operating trans-tasman, I can't see NZ and OZ not having some sort of co-operative travel arrangement?

As for me, my current plan was to go to Singapore and Japan at the end of this year. As of this moment in time, my travel is still booked...but it seems more and more unlikely to happen with each passing week