Well, if UA follows this, I am locked in for 1K until Jan 31st 2023. The extension will get me until 2022, and I'll earn the remainder in 2021 by default with my frequent routes. Makes my life easy, but not convinced that it would be the right move. If they do this, and flying resumes in H2, why would I not fly on another airline where they have frequent non-stops vs UA's one-stop? For domestic flights the F vs Y difference is marginal for me compared to the time savings, if it's not going to help retain my future status.

Still think proportionally reduced criteria (or proportionally increased earning) would have been the correct incentive mechanism.

Also truth be told, I talk a good game and tend to end up flying UA anyway because I've had 28 years of generally very positive experience doing so!