Originally Posted by
copperred
Just one or two questions: what do you think the population of Italy and Spain are? Is Italy's population more than half of the EU?
This was a mathematical excercise. Any mathematical excercise about the spread of a virus will eventually end up with figures that are larger than the population of a country or even the entire world. The intention of the excercise was to prove that many countries in Europe could very well already be in a situation where there is flock immunity. If and when more than 50% of the population have caught the virus, there's no point in having any restrictions anymore.
When reading the news about people dying from covid-19, it's important to realize that it takes about four weeks from the time of infection until the time of death. So, all deaths that occur today are due to infections that occurred before any restrictions were introduced. Also, even after you've reached flock immunity, the number of deaths will continue to be high for another four weeks. The number of deaths will not taper off until four weeks after having reached flock immunity.