FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Old Mar 11, 2020 | 6:24 am
  #307  
narvik
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Originally Posted by PanAmWT
What you show is a typical seasonal cycle. We all hope the coming warm season will suppress the viruses. But one cannot use this figure to argue for a relationship. If you draw a time series of temperature of US it will show the opposite relationship with case number, To identify a temperature association one has to isolate all the non meteorological factors, including the counter measures such as healthcare infrastructure, behavior change of the masses and social distancing etc which clearly change with time.

(all bolding mine)

One can argue for a relationship using such a [temperature curve] figure, but one certainly can't prove it.
The US doesn't show "the opposite relationship" in my opinion, especially when one also considers the delay in reporting cases vs. the temperature curve. There could be a delay of many weeks from when the temperatures rise, and the reported cases diminish.
Iterating: There is a considerable delay in reports of confirmed cases vs. actual contamination, especially in the US.

Here's a post from a few days showing the mean-temperatures from the hot-spots from around the world. Notice the lack of warm climates!
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32156286-post3819.html


On a different subject: this story (from Virginia) illustrates how unprepared we really are (in the US), and the reluctance of testing still continues:

"When the couple returned to the U.S. Thursday from their vacation, he felt like he had a severe sinus infection, which had started on the last few days aboard their ship, MS A’Sara [Egyptian Cruise on the Nile river]. His wife, 58, started feeling flu-like symptoms on the flight back to Dulles International Airport."
"They told The Pilot that they were released Friday evening because they apparently didn’t meet the recommended criteria for testing."

From: https://www.pilotonline.com/news/hea...kii-story.html

Follow-up: "The results show a “presumptive positive,” and the hospitals have been informed."
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/vir...tive-positive/

Does the CDC still have to confirm all "positives"?
"He and his wife, 58, were told the finding is only presumed as positive until it is validated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

If this is anything like the lawyer who infected ~50 people in NYC, I wouldn't be surprised if this couple also infected quite a few (through no fault of their own!):
https://www.dailypress.com/news/heal...mty-story.html

Last edited by narvik; Mar 11, 2020 at 6:54 am
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