Originally Posted by
EWR764
Scott Kirby is coming up in a "fireside chat" with Jamie Baker of JPM, webcast link here:
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/js6ap6iv
Kirby has a history of rather enlightening candor in this setting (more free-form discussion) so it should be an interesting listen, under the circumstances.
Coming up at 12:50 Eastern, today (March 10). It will be archived
here at some point after completion.
My notes from his prepared remarks:
Sounds like they thought they were kickin' butt before COVID
Sounds like they didn't get a clue ex Asia until a couple weeks ago.
Appears they don't think it will last for very long but "hope is not a strategy".
Cut, cut cut. 20% monthly capacity cuts each month going forward if no improvement (would imagine that's not great for what they will do in the cabin).
Asia booking down 100%
Gross bookings down 60/70 internationally. Domestically 20%
As testing expands - more cases likely. Expect things to get worse.
This scenario is not a forecast - but preparing for the worse - this is the stress test scenario.
- rev down 70% april, may, then improving to 20% in december. (looks like his stress test assumes that we don't get the virus to reappear in fall/december).
- sars took 14 months to recover. Their plan is expect 18 months to recovery (let's hope it's not this bad).
- no cap x until demand has recovered.