Originally Posted by
stimpy
That is a very good point. I can tell you that French hospital workers have been tied up in countless meetings and briefings over the last couple of weeks. So far they have few cases per hospital, but if they get hit hard with intensive care patients then that does affect their ability to take care of other patients who need intensive care.
This is actually _the main_ point. The case-fatality rate is a red herring. Total health-care infrastructure collapse is a very real possibility in 'business as usual'. The knock-on impacts of that would be unprecedented in at least a century, and would (temporarily) wipe out all the gains we've had in healthcare delivery for the last 40-50 years.
This isn't about you (or I) not dieing of COVID-19 (I hope my chances are reasonable). There are massive implications for society if all hospitals get overwhelmed.
A couple of weeks ago, when Iran/Italy/S. Korea declared their emergencies, pretty much at the same time, I became rather fatalistic about COVID-19, I felt we can't really stop the pandemic...but even outside China, those places that have taken EARLY aggressive policies appear to be doing well, e.g. S. Korea, although we really need another week to see how effective it's been.
China fluffed the chance for complete containment by not acting in early Jan: but they have more than made up for it (internally). The complacency of Western countries by contrast, with all information available, really beggars belief.
tb