Originally Posted by
stimpy
Aha! This is the key. My argument is that the panic has MUCH more societal cost than the deaths. The deaths affect a few, but the panic affects everyone. Again, us rich people can afford to deal with this. I don't give a hoot about the stock market crashing because the rich can afford it and it will eventually come back up again. But the vast majority of humanity are losing what prosperity they had. Humans need both good health and prosperity. What good does it do to be healthy if you don't have a job or the ability to take care of your family?
The deaths are only part of the story. The economic cost of a significant chunk of the workforce being down with a virus is the reason many large companies now pay for the flu vaccine for employees.
In the absence of a vaccine, the next best option appears to be social distancing. From the China data, the "earlier" option (outside Wuhan) is effective in 3-4 weeks and the "later" option (Wuhan/Hubei) takes 8 weeks. Again there is a delta in economic impact.
It will be interesting to see how the Italian quarantine plays out, and whether the short term economic pain is worth getting this outbreak under control before peak summer tourist season.