Originally Posted by
notquiteaff
Germany’s mortality rate is 0% with 1018 positive tests and 218 new cases today. The US has slightly less than half the number of identified cases and 19 fatalities. Bad luck (hasn’t hit a German nursing home... yet?)? Better healthcare system? France, next door, has about the same stats as Germany (1126 cases), but already 19 fatalities...
I am not an infectious disease expert, but I agree that drawing conclusions from individual countries or regions at this time is probably fairly unreliable given the “small” numbers and different approaches to care and testing.
The discomforting fact behind those stats is that the case numbers in the US are way too low due to lack of diagnostics. That explains the relatively high number of fatalities. Perhaps the real US case number is already 10x by now or higher.
Same rationale applies to Italy: Probably the case numbers there are also closer to 5x of what the stats tell us, that explains the highest number of fatalities outside China.
On the other side, diagnostics capacities (labs, etc.) in Germany are among the best in the world.
All that tells is that Germany is early on the curve and can do more to drag out the spread now, yet the numbers will rise likewise, just slowlier if appropriate action is now taken.