Originally Posted by
enemigo
2. All Hospitalisations lasting weeks - this is not true. We do not currently understand the normal disease progression in the most severe cases, but 'weeks' for the majority of patients is most likely not true.
We can use Singapore example. Totally there are 150 cases.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highligh...tion-confirmed
To date, a total of 90 cases have fully recovered from the infection and have been discharged from hospital. Of the 60 confirmed cases who are still in hospital, most are stable or improving. Nine are in critical condition in the intensive care unit.
60 hospitalization, 9 critical. 15% of hospitalized are in critical condition. Or 6% from total 150 cases. That quite large figure, what do you think?
Now, let's look at the dashboard
https://go.gov.sg/covid-19-dashboard
and also look at past releases
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19/past-updates from these releases you will see entries like following:
7TH MAR 2020
Eight more cases of COVID-19 infection have been discharged from hospital today (Cases 43, 47, 74, 85, 86, 93, 96 and 110). In all, 90 have fully recovered from the infection and have been discharged from hospital.
Now, if I had enough time, I could go and spend several hours to see one which days each of above cases were reported and calculate precise number of days they've stayed in hospital. And do the same for every single of 90 discharged case.
So question - how many cases do we need to have to calculate average discharge time with 95% of confidence? 100? 1000? 5000?