I'm going to _try_ to be less active on this thread: this thread was extremely valuable over the last two months since COVID-19 was really such an unknown...and most governments were minimising threats...I think that will become less and less the case as the pandemic progresses.

Re: potential outcomes, this link about pandemic preparedness from Johns Hopkins, adapted from an influenza document, really tells the stark reality. There are two scenarios: 1968-like and 1918-like. Even the 1968 scenario is scary, but I think we're actually more like the 1918 scenario.

Although I agree that we don't know the denominator of true infected, Diamond Princess is the best 'contained' point outbreak we have: the demographics are skewed, to be fair, since it was a much older than average population. But the number of asymptomatic individuals appears to be ~50%, it _may_ be a bit higher with a younger demographic, but I think the mortality rate is going to be well above 0.2%, and could well be 1% or even slightly higher, and that is under optimal care scenarios. The hospitalization rate is the biggest concern, as I and others have said all along: this has serious implications for _all cause mortality_. And I don't think this rate will be under 3%, which is just too high for us to cope with.

Finally, I think China is going to aim for a 'last man standing' approach: they have been remarkably effective in bringing things under control: but the biggest take home message is that it worked MUCH better outside Hubei, i.e. restrict activities EARLY. I have a suspicion they will try to hold out until a vaccine is available...which may mean torching their economy for 6 months, or more...but if the rest of the world suffers even greater losses, it's all relative.

A couple of points that others raised asking me, that I only just read: a) mouthwash: I don't think this is a good idea, at least excessively. Yes, the mouthwash will kill the virus, but only while it's in the mouth, and damaging your mucosa by excessive use will instead increase susceptibility, b) mask re-use: I think we SHOULD be re-using masks, even in hospitals, let alone personal use. I do NOT recommend spraying with anything, that will potentially damage integrity. For 'home' remedies, I suggest putting the mask safely in a ziplock bag, disinfecting hands after that, then exposing to sunlight for 2-3 days, or at least keeping in a warm place. No guarantees (this is EVIDENCE-free SPECULATION), but that should probably decrease viral particle load by 1000x fold more.

Closing shot: disappointed that the Cruise industry really believes enhanced screening can prevent further outbreaks, especially since we know full well that half of those infected won't have a fever, and even 15% of those coming to medical attention won't have a cough,

Be well all!

tb