Originally Posted by
trueblu
If your local community has 1-10 cases, it's able to potentially contain. Once it gets to 50-100, containment becomes very difficult. Once it gets to 1000, it becomes almost impossible. And to go from 1 to 50 is just 6 doublings, 18 days potentially.
I'm genuinely praying this thing slows down in the Spring weather, but that will really only be helpful if the number of cases in communities is in the containment-feasible range. Once you have dozens or hundreds of cases, it's hard to prevent onward transmission, even with a weather-susceptible virus.
tb
I think once widespread testing starts over the next week or so, we're going to be shocked and dismayed at how much community transmission has already occurred in the major West Coast cities. i think we'll be looking at strategies to slow the spread rather than containment, as that opportunity will have passed.
But I hope I am wrong!