The absolute risks now are low in most communities right now, even Seattle let alone most of France, I don't think anyone sensible is arguing about that....but at least as far as I'm concerned, I advocate strategies that can prolong containment for as long as possible....

If your local community has 1-10 cases, it's able to potentially contain. Once it gets to 50-100, containment becomes very difficult. Once it gets to 1000, it becomes almost impossible. And to go from 1 to 50 is just 6 doublings, 18 days potentially.

I'm genuinely praying this thing slows down in the Spring weather, but that will really only be helpful if the number of cases in communities is in the containment-feasible range. Once you have dozens or hundreds of cases, it's hard to prevent onward transmission, even with a weather-susceptible virus. And it won't be miraculous, since we're seeing transmisison (limited) in Australia, so it's not just going to disappear in a puff pf smoke.

tb