Originally Posted by
notquiteaff
However, aren’t many of the big pharma companies multi-nationals with manufacturing facilities abroad? Would other governments want them to do the same thing for their populations?
Sure, and I'm sure if it becomes necessary for exercising those extraordinary measures, we can reach a deal with wherever manufacturer facilities happen to be. However, I suspect they will be allocated first for domestic use. There will be a lag, since domestic use will require Phases 1, 2, and 3, which even with fast track, can't envision a process any sooner than 12 months before an NDA. And, this would likely cut some corners, unless the vaccine has little or no known side effects and high efficacy.
Originally Posted by
notquiteaff
Sorry if I missed something, but were does this 1 million capacity number come from? That was, I think, the total number of hospital beds in the US, but that wouldn’t be the capacity available for covid-19 patients unless we convince the population to stop having heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, ....
(according to
https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals we are actually looking at only 792k staffed hospital beds in community hospitals)
It's just a high level estimate I picked. I just wanted a very rough model to get an idea of the time frame where this shortage may become a reality, and since it's something out of my control, aside from adopting a work from home policy for the time being, I wasn't looking at highly detailed model. In other words, it's not a mathematical run model I'd use with the necessary granular data, but just a "head's up," if you will that in May or June, this could hit the fan.