If A class (VIP upgrade) is available 1 week out that says a lot. Looks like yeield management thinks they can't sell it so they are will to give it away (VIPs, miles) or discount it (YUP). I've been on this route and have seen empty seats on the second flight 296. Never taken the first one. I wouldput the odds at 2 to 1 your e-upg would clear but probably not at the hour mark your window opens up.

On the other hand, an 8 hour red-eye is a bi*** to spend in coach when 15k miles would do the trick.