Originally Posted by
Kacee
But UA isn't doing any of that in terms of its overall earnings forecast. Even in pulling 2020 guidance, management says they remain on track to deliver "strong earnings growth in 2021 and beyond." It's a total wink wink, nod nod guidance pull ("our lawyers are telling us we have to do this, but we really expect to meet or exceed our targets not just for 2020 and 2021, but beyond").
Entirely pulling full year guidance in the middle of the 1st quarter is about as bold an admission a public company will offer at this stage. Investors give little credence to mgmt forecasts beyond a year in good times and bad.
You can bet every intl airline is acting like a swan - calm on outside pedaling like crazy under the surface.
Sales teams are gathering feedback, MP is looking for patterns. Hard to incent flying to places that have no demand - and they know better than us the domestic mix of these grounded flyers. I’m sure promos are in consideration but goodness you all step into the drivers seat with all the stakeholders and unknowns.
At at this point it’s in the running for #3 or 4 on most disruptive modern travel events behind 9/11 and fall of 2008, first gulf war in 1990. The Iceland volcano is up there but forget how long. The saving grace is fuel prices falling in advance.
Disclosure: I own puts on UA that profit from a decline in share price.